Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 21.238575 23.080046 25.069293 27.388522 30.031754 32.966598 36.494294
2025-10-19 18.445454 20.989132 23.931679 27.630227 32.217366 37.806177 45.270018
2025-10-26 16.291437 19.166173 22.664066 27.322098 33.505082 41.652419 53.609682
2025-11-02 14.780784 17.849025 21.735560 27.162553 34.794801 45.576881 62.863550
2025-11-09 13.672750 16.871119 21.061141 27.155211 36.175778 49.762113 73.490205
2025-11-16 12.753204 16.021472 20.425940 27.060275 37.334877 53.743521 84.852144
2025-11-23 11.998196 15.309119 19.882811 26.990523 38.462352 57.823089 97.627653
2025-11-30 11.336931 14.661467 19.354250 26.852147 39.416246 61.744700 111.442575
2025-12-07 10.827779 14.182591 19.016671 26.950688 40.748068 66.592620 129.196519
2025-12-14 10.356671 13.719520 18.655048 26.955069 41.892012 71.304945 148.819937
2025-12-21 10.124890 13.587192 18.777670 27.759024 44.598829 79.869133 183.618318
2025-12-28 9.652040 13.060245 18.239852 27.370672 44.963742 83.399549 205.782617
2026-01-04 9.275774 12.670761 17.912135 27.354512 46.145454 89.360351 241.640392
2026-01-11 8.969723 12.372350 17.711425 27.550089 47.813946 97.109688 292.565891
2026-01-18 8.590959 11.937797 17.254854 27.226021 48.325155 102.038831 337.740950
2026-01-25 8.272632 11.580766 16.902252 27.060733 49.163231 108.200893 398.502584
2026-02-01 8.006700 11.292434 16.645106 27.050916 50.357140 115.891677 482.968527
2026-02-08 7.746986 10.999887 16.360076 26.955547 51.333899 123.328983 584.324908
2026-02-15 7.510302 10.732639 16.101149 26.885818 52.365105 131.434620 717.365716
2026-02-22 7.279757 10.464059 15.822579 26.748078 53.204665 139.293985 881.784130
2026-03-01 7.099042 10.269713 15.664348 26.846012 54.685032 150.382782 1151.498358
2026-03-08 6.916427 10.063375 15.471294 26.850348 55.919467 161.221423 1514.227052
2026-03-15 6.851414 10.053161 15.636430 27.649746 59.556477 185.034107 2535.692639